Connecticut Poll: Lamont Holds Lead as Challenger Narrows Gap

The latest Nutmeg State Poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center gives us a new look at Connecticut politics. Governor Ned Lamont now holds a wide lead in the Democratic primary over Rep. Josh Elliott.

The poll also digs into GOP favoritism and voter interest across the state. It tracks attitudes from Hartford to New Haven, keeping an eye on how voters in towns like Stamford, Bridgeport, and Norwalk view Lamont and the main GOP hopefuls as the ballot deadline gets closer.

Find Your Ideal Getaway in Connecticut
Explore top-rated stays with no booking fees and instant confirmation. Your dream trip starts here!
Start Exploring Now

Lamont’s Democratic Primary Lead and Approval

Among likely Democratic primary voters, Governor Lamont leads Josh Elliott 57% to 13%. Another 29% say they’re still undecided.

This is a shift: Lamont’s edge over Elliott almost doubled since November. Back then, Lamont was at 55%, Elliott had 7%, and undecideds were at 37%.

Even with this big numerical lead, Lamont’s job approval is only +4. About 49% approve, while 45% disapprove.

Other national polls show a different story. Morning Consult, for example, put Lamont way ahead at +33 (63% approve, 30% disapprove) in a survey released Feb. 2.

The Nutmeg State Poll, conducted Feb. 12–16, focuses on Connecticut voters and uses different weights for party subsamples, which probably explains the gap. In towns all over the state—Hartford, Waterbury, New Britain, Middletown—voters seem to be weighing Lamont’s record against his current momentum in a pretty crowded Democratic field.

Lamont’s Numbers: What They Signal for CT Democrats

The Democratic sample in the Nutmeg poll shows Lamont as the clear favorite among primary voters. Still, the tight approval numbers suggest there’s room for new messaging as the election season heats up.

In places like New Haven, Stamford, and Danbury, a big undecided group and a governor with mixed job ratings could shape turnout. Progressive and suburban precincts might see some shifting dynamics as the campaigns adjust their strategies.

Voters in Bridgeport, Norwalk, and Groton might care more about tangible results—jobs, services, public safety—than just raw enthusiasm. That could shape where campaigns focus their resources as the primary nears its end.

Republican Favorability Snapshot

The Nutmeg poll didn’t release a Republican gubernatorial matchup. Instead, it measured favorability for four GOP figures among likely Republican primary voters.

The spread in perceptions could have a real impact on general-election strategy and down-ballot races around the state. Hartford, Enfield, Bristol, and Shelton all have their own local flavor, so these numbers might matter more than they seem at first glance.

Key GOP Favorability Figures

Sen. Ryan Fazio — 42% favorable
Erin Stewart (former New Britain mayor) — 40% favorable, but 22% unfavorable (high unfavorability tied to independent mailing efforts)
Betsy McCaughey (Newsmax host) — 14% favorable, 4% unfavorable, 51% no opinion, 31% neutral
Timothy Wilcox — 26% favorable, 3% unfavorable, 8% neutral, 63% no opinion

This contrast matters in communities like Waterbury, Bristol, New London, East Hartford, and Norwich. Local voters often react to a mix of statewide message and candidate personality.

Negative mailings against Erin Stewart seem to have hurt her favorability with Republicans. Reporters and campaign teams are definitely keeping an eye on that as primary season moves along.

Methodology and Local Angles for Connecticut Voters

The Nutmeg State Poll ran from Feb. 12–16 with a ±4.1% margin of error for all voters. Margins are bigger for subsamples: ±7.4% for Democrats and ±9.8% for Republicans, reflecting Connecticut’s shifting partisan mix.

Because the poll focuses on Connecticut, the results probably hit home for voters in Hartford, New Haven, Stamford, Bridgeport, Waterbury, Norwalk, Danbury, New Britain, and beyond.

For local editors in places like Old Saybrook and Norwich, the numbers give a sense of how gubernatorial leadership and congressional profiles might sway statehouse races. In the Groton and Middletown corridors, campaign teams will be watching the undecided pool and those margin gaps as they tweak their messages and decide where to spend their money.

Implications for Connecticut Campaigns and Local Coverage

Lamont holds a commanding lead among Democratic primary voters. Still, his modest approval rating hints at some real vulnerability that opponents will probably try to exploit with kitchen-table issues like inflation, energy costs, and public safety.

The GOP’s favorability is all over the place across Fazio, Stewart, McCaughey, and Wilcox. Connecticut feels like a battleground of both personality and policy, with different regions reacting to their own narratives—from the urban centers of Bridgeport and New Haven to suburban towns like West Hartford and Stamford.

As results get closer, CT newsroom teams in Hartford, Danbury, and Bridgeport will need to keep an eye on how undecided voters break. It’s not always obvious which issues will dominate local forums.

The Nutmeg State Poll offers a barometer for statewide sentiment. Local reporting will shape how those numbers resonate in neighborhoods from New London to Norwalk.

Here is the source article for this story: Poll: Lamont’s long-shot challenger is far behind, but slightly less so

Discover Your Perfect Stay in Connecticut
Find available hotels and vacation homes instantly. No fees, best rates guaranteed!
Check Availability Now